What a disastrous week for the GOP. First came New Jersey Rep. Mike Ferguson’s retirement, and now this:
In a stunning development, wealthy businessman Andrew Saul (R) is making calls to inform supporters and GOP insiders that he is dropping his candidacy in New York’s 19th District. Saul was widely regarded as a strong Republican recruit to take on freshman Democratic Cong. John Hall (D). Saul’s ability to self-finance and the Republican-tilt of the district made it a top GOP target. But now, his exit from the race leaves Republicans looking for a credible challenger.
As Rothenberg notes, Saul was a much-hyped recruit based on his immense personal wealth and his strong fundraising (he had raised $359,000 in the last quarter and had over $450K on hand). This is nothing short of a stunning blow for the NRCC.
UPDATE: Perhaps this had something to do with it.
Saul was the only way Republicans were going to make this rapidly Dem trending district competitve. They can’t run one of their state Senators, because they would probably lose their seat.
I remember hearing rumors that Assemblyman Greg Ball was planning on running, anyone else know anything about that?
The Republican House committee is broke, so they did not have to money to invest in a race against Hall, Saul had the money and as such I had viewed Hall as endangered. With Saul gone, Hall becomes Safe in my opinion.
Our defensive line is pretty thin right now:
FL-16: Mahoney
IL-8: Bean
GA-8: Mashall
TX-22: Lampson
PA-10: Carney
KS-2: Boyda
NH-1: Shea Porter (maybe, looks like she’s solidifying)
Boyda looks like she’s in the worst spot. Lampson depends on the Republicans. If it is Olson, barring a sudden blast of well publicized hate towards Cornyn and all things associated with him, it’s over; he stands a good chance against the rest (and walks against Gibbs). Marshall needs to kick up the fundraising. The rest all look like they are doing decently.
Note: I’ve lived in Hall’s district for the past ten years.
Saul was going to make this race VERY competitive. Moderate Republicans have always played well in the area (see Ben Gilman, State Senator Bill Larkin, Sue Kelly, etc) and there was no reason to think Saul wasn’t going to. With Saul out, an Iraq War veteran, Kieran Lalor, is the only remaining Republican running. On the surface, it might seem that his military background would be advantageous in this district that has a high influx of vets (and West Point), but Lalor is, well, a winger to say the least. Check out his Eternal Vigilance Society…pretty scary stuff if you look around the archives. If he’s the nominee, Hall will win by at least ten points.
That all being said, however, Saul dropping out provides Greg Ball, who was mentioned upthread, a BIG opening to get in. A few months ago he fueled speculation he might run by buying Google ads to his website when people searched for “John Hall.” If/when he does, he is a SERIOUS threat – he’s a terrific campaigner (he unseated a longtime incumbent Republican in his district’s primary) and a typical immigration scare-mongerer. If I had to guess, I’d say he gets in the race only because taking on Hall after he’s won re-election once makes taking him down exponentially harder down the road.
Saul dropping out is the best thing that could have happened for Republicans in the district. Saul was a Rockefeller Republican from Manhattan who was tainted with the whiff of scandal. No surprise that his vanity campaign crashed and burned on takeoff.
Kieran Lalor is a great candidate for the district, and represents our mainstream, traditional values. Without the anti-Bush sentiment and lame non-campaign that Sue Kelly ran to help him, John Hall will be heading back to jam with his hippy friends.
Just watch the grassroots mobilize for Lalor!